Fox News just announced some exit polls showing John McCain with
double digit leads among white men in Indiana, Ohio, and
Virginia, but I just looked at the corresponding exits from 2004,
and it turns out that Obama is drastically outperforming Kerry
among this demographic, according to exits which, granted, need
to be taken with a grain of salt. In
Ohio, McCain is leading Obama 51-47 among white men, but Bush
won them 56-43; in
Indiana, it's 54-44 for McCain, compared to 65-34 for Bush;
in
Virginia, it's 58-37 in favor of McCain, compared to 72-27
for Bush. True, Bush won Virginia and Indiana by comfortable
margins, so there's some buffer for McCain.
In better news for McCain, the exits showed him leading by 11
points among late deciders in Virginia, but he's trailing Obama
among this group in Indiana and Ohio.
Again, this needs to be taken with a grain of salt, as we learned
last time. But how can I resist?
