What it is, ain't exactly clear..... hey, baby, what's that
sound? Everybody look what's going down.
There's a massive last-minute shift in the electorate. Massive.
What's not clear is whether it is all in one direction or not. If
it is all or mostly in one direction, it is in McCain's
direction. But it could be a shift in two directions: One, a
bandwagon effect, leading some semi-McCain leaners to go to
Obama; versus two, a "safety" effect, leading a whole bunch of
undecideds and some semi-Obama leaners to move to McCain as the
better known quantity in uncertain times.
But what's clear to me is that there is an incredible amount of
movement. And as all the "bad" news in t he past few days has
been bad for Obama -- bankrupting the coal industry, an
illegal-immigrant aunt who isn't being cared for, more
information about Khalidi and vote fraud -- I tend to think that
even if there are countervailing movements in general, the
movement in McCain's direction will be stronger.
If McCain were smart, he would air a commercial throughout coal
country playing the audio of Obama's "bankrupt" statement. And if
he were smart, he would air a commercial in Colorado only saying:
"This is where I stand on two issues of crucial importance to
Coloradans. First, I will promote offshore drilling and
development of oil shale and oil sands; my opponent won't.
Second, I endorse Ward Connerly's Colorado initiative to ban
racial preferences."
State-specific advertisements, in the final days, if they do
not hurt in other states, are the way to go.
But back to my central point of this blog entry: Yogi was right:
It ain't over. Dick Motta was right: The fat lady hasn't sung.
And Yogi was right again: Good pitching always beats good
hitting, and vice versa. (In electoral terms, in times of crisis,
change always beats reassuring familiarity, and vice versa.) Step
outside. Talk to your neighbors. Listen to the wind. Feel the
movement. This race is wild.
