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Obama by 10?

By Robert Stacy McCain on 11.1.08 @ 2:54PM

Barack Obama leads John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday by an identical 52% to 42% margin among both traditional likely voters and expanded likely voters. Obama leads by a similar 52% to 41% margin among all registered voters.
This is the first time since Gallup began estimating likely voters in early October that there is no difference between Gallup's two likely voter models. Obama's lead of 52% to 42% using Gallup's traditional estimate of likely voting criteria takes into account past voting as well as current intentions. Obama's identical lead using the expanded model takes into account only current voting intentions.

I'm having a hard time thinking of any particular reason why what was a 2-point race on Monday should have swung so strongly in Obama's favor in the span of five days. If this Gallup swing is real -- if a tsunami of late-deciding voters pushes Obama to a double-digit win -- the likely explanation will be bandwagon psychology. The marginal undecided voter wants to vote for the winner.

View all comments (11) | Leave a comment

Harry| 11.1.08 @ 3:34PM

The polls cannot be trusted. Virtually every one of them is in the tank for Obama. We're being scammed folks, and the only way you can do something about it is to get out and vote...for McCain/Palin.

The damage that Obama...forget about Biden, his village is looking for him, they're missing an idiot...can do to our country in 4 years will be devastating!!!

Impeach Obama| 11.1.08 @ 3:42PM

I'm ready....but I still hope for the best.

It's amazing that urls with Impeach Obama have been all taken a long time ago. (It's mostly a spoof on Impeach Bush)

jacksmith| 11.1.08 @ 4:11PM

I see you all have not lost your fight :

GOOD! Because we have a lot to do. You! (the American people) are going to have to take back control of your elected government at every level, and set your government back on the right path of service to you, and the greater good of the World.

Barack Obama and the democrats are your best hope of doing that now. Tell your family, friends, and everyone you know to support them as best they can. Because the Bush McCain vote fraud, vote cheating, vote buying, vote manipulation machine is already hard at work to cheat you again. And we all know what a disaster that has been the past 8 years of Bush McCain.

Barack Obama and the democrats will need all the power you can give them at every level of government (Federal, State, County, and local City elected governments). Obama and the democrats will have an enormous mess to fix for the American people, and the rest of the World. A mess caused by the corrupt Bush McCain administration.

You see, starting back in 2000, and before 911, it was mostly the Republican governors, Republican legislatures, and county elected Republican officials that conspired with the corrupt Bush McCain administration to raise college, and university tuitions by the fastest, and highest rate increases in American history. Some state tuitions went up by as much as a WHOPPING! 30% in one year.

The reason the Bush McCain administration did this was to force struggling working class kids into the military to pay for the sudden jump in tuition. Which was forced on them by the corrupt Bush McCain administration, and their corrupt Republican Governors, and republican controlled state legislatures.

See, Bush McCain had plans to get us into all these immoral, foolish, criminal, and unnecessary wars from the start. So they could use these wars to seize power, and later to get reelected. But, for their evil plan to work they needed more volunteer soldiers struggling to pay for an education whose blood they could spill to help them seize more power. Remember Bush McCain's "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!" theatrics.

The exploitation, and lost lives of these finest Americans is despicable, disgusting, immoral, corrupt and criminal. And it makes me SICK, and ANGRY!

You will have to vote for Obama, and the democrats in overwhelming numbers to overcome the Bush McCain vote fraud machine. Vote early if you can. Then help your fellow Americans cast their votes now, and on through election day. Vote for Obama, and the democrats like your life, and the lives of your loved ones depends on it. Because it does. You will not survive 4 more years of "Let Them Eat Cake" Bush McCain, and their republican allies.

Just look at the mess we have now.

You can fix this mess with your votes for Obama, and the democrats. And REMEMBER, no matter which of us may stumble or fall, the rest of you must continue to surge forward for Barack Obama, and the democrats, and for your-selves most of all. The children, and the World are counting on us.

It's in your hands now. And I know you will get it done.

God bless all of you.

JACK SMITH - WORKING CLASS... :-)

ruth| 11.1.08 @ 5:29PM

Hey, jsmith, did you say 'vote early and vote often'? That's the only way you are going to win this election, by cheating. Crawl back under your rock where you belong, Obamba astroturfer.

M. Tobias| 11.1.08 @ 7:26PM

So the USA Today/Gallup poll has Obama up 52% to 42% for McCain in its traditional poll of 1000 people. AOL Presidential Straw Poll, for this week, still shows McCain over Obama 60%-38% in its unscientific sampling of 70,000 people. I wonder which one will prove to be more accurate. The one with the news media name or the one without?

WendyG| 11.1.08 @ 9:34PM

I hope Jsmith's post is satire, cause I am laughing really hard at it. Come to think of it, if it's not satire, it's even funnier!

Blog Goliard| 11.2.08 @ 2:18AM

Surely few things are more moronic than voting for someone simply because you think he's going to win. (And on a secret ballot, no less!) I suppose that's what you get for extending the franchise to morons.

And anyhow, I thought America loved an underdog? Surely those who were tickled to see Texas Tech win last night should be tickled on the same grounds to see McCain pull it off on Tuesday?

WendyG| 11.2.08 @ 9:31AM

>>>Surely few things are more moronic than voting for someone simply because you think he's going to win.

Tell that to Colin Powell, Ken Adelman and Chris Buckley.

I'll tell you my next move. I'm gonna set up a business selling "Don't Blame Me I Voted for McCain" bumperstickers. I'll soon myself among the "rich," making anywhere from 120K or 250K, or whatever "rich" is today.

Never Fly Hammer and Sickle| 11.2.08 @ 10:38AM

Jsmith's Hanoi Hanna impersonation is quite laughable... but very frightening that this socialistic diatribe is considered free speech. I have been contending for many years that everyone needs to review the Communist Manifesto and compare it to the democrats "manifesto". However, many have forgotten the tenants of Mother Russia's revolution so they are unable to recognize what is happening in our America. This is nothing short of a coup in on our soil.

However, I believe that true Americans see through the propaganda and Mccain will win... God Willing!!

Spicy Joker| 11.2.08 @ 2:24PM

I must be alone as a conservative who thinks Obama really is up 10. Considering how dumbed-down, celebrity-obsessed, and uninformed most people (especially young people) are, it sounds entirely plausible to me.