The American Spectator : The Spectacle Blog : McCain's Chances

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There seems to be a false debate among those who think McCain can still win and those who think he doesn't have a shot. Of course, as in any election, we'll never know until the votes are counted, as I learned in New Hampshire this January. But, without gaming out all of the possibilities, let me put it this way. If you look at the electoral map, it's pretty clear that Obama has multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes (there are even scenarios under which he can get there without Ohio, Florida, or Pennsylvania), while McCain has to sweep about 10 states that are either close or in which Obama leads. So, while Obama can have a bunch of things not go his way and still win, McCain needs just about everything to break his way. Sure, Hillary's upset in New Hampshire rocked the political world, but to win next Tuesday, McCain will need several New Hampshires.

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M. Tobias| 10.31.08 @ 8:09AM

Just one point. Obama does not lead in any state as the general election has not been held as yet. Wait for it. Tuesday we'll see if McCain/Palin needs any New Hampshires or not.

WendyG| 10.31.08 @ 9:27AM

It looks like McCain may be a day late and a dollar short. A terrible shame. I lay it all at the feet of the press. Never has the MSM been so in the tank for a candidate, so protective and unwilling to report the truth. To say nothing of Colin Powell, Chris Buckley and the other so-called Conservatives who have thrown their lot in with Obama, offering him their credibility. So-called Conservatives like Peggy Noonan, whose treacly Obama-worshipping hogwash appears in today's WSJ. These Stepford Republicans just can't wait for a seat at the table, that coveted invite to join the New Liberal Age. Sarah Palin (whom Peggy sniffs at) is everything Peggy is not. Real, down-to-earth, regular, and a true Conservative. Obviously, I'm disgusted. You expect your enemies to oppose you, but not your friends. BUT, we survived Carter and we'll survive this too. And after Carter came Reagan, so I'll HOPE for CHANGE.

Mike| 10.31.08 @ 4:12PM

At this point I think it's more important to look at the broader trends then the rough odds. Politics isn't a random game of chance, so McCain winning, say, 5 out of 6 essential states would be less statistical miracle than evidence of a late trend or a widespread polling error. If undecided voters break for McCain it will part of a nationwide trend or a fundamental flaw in the current polling, like a "bradley effect" or an underwhelming youth turn out.

So on Tuesday if we see that McCain has won a state like Penn. by, say, 10 points it would then be perplexing if he didn't follow that with victories in the other states he needs.

ally| 11.4.08 @ 11:59AM

It is honestly sad to say that the next president of the United States will be based off of ignorant votes. People want change lol, little do they know the change that is being proposed will not fix the problems we are in, and instead America will become very dark. I’m disgusted with the amount of ignorance that has played a huge part in this election. No matter WHO one may choose please for the sake of America be educated, the media is bias and flat out retarded. Everyone will remember the 5th of November, for in the end America will face disappointment. I hope America is ready for the change it so desperately wants because they sure as shit will not know how to stomach it. I guess all we can do is support our government because no matter the outcome we are Americans.