The American Spectator : The Spectacle Blog : Obama and the Stock Market

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In IBD, Jack Kemp and Peter Ferarra write, "Are Barack Obama's proposed tax increases adversely affecting our financial markets? We say yes, unambiguously." What follows is a very strong case for why investors should be concerned with Obama's tax plans and why they will be bad for investors, but there is nothing else to support their unambiguous claim that the tax plans currently are affecting the markets. I write this because I've seen a number of conservative authors try to argue that the market downturn is somewhat attributable to investor fears about an incoming Obama administration, yet nobody offers any evidence to support that claim. Back when I was a financial reporter, we couldn't assert that something was hurting the market unless we had actual traders, stock analysts, or investors on record saying that it was, no matter what the correlatory evidence. And I think that's a good rule of thumb to follow. For what it's worth, my sense is that there probably is investor trepidation about Obama, which is part of a broader concern about the dirth of competent national leadership on the economy, but given the complexity of the markets and the magnitude of the credit crisis, I'm not sure how much of an affect the presidential race is having. But that's just my best guess, I wouldn't say it's "unambiguously" true without doing reporting.

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JSBolton| 10.28.08 @ 11:01AM

There has been a lot of financial and economic panic-mongering from the left, and such that the Obama Panic could even be used to describe the recent downturns. A McCain rally could be underway though.

Michael Roush| 10.28.08 @ 12:26PM

JSBolton,
Financial and economic panic mongering from the left? You mean everything that has been going on in the markets and the Bush administration's response are simply an illusion - a conspiracy by the left? Recent downturns because of Obama and not because of Greenspan, Gramm and Cox's policies? A McCain rally? There is dumb and breathtakingly dumb. I am now breathless.

A P Hyman| 10.28.08 @ 10:27PM

Yes, many investors are petrified of an Obama win. What's neglected in the mainstream media is the fact that the root of this economic meltdown is the sub-prime mortgage loans that invaded way too many aspects of investments and banking. Loans that were orchestrated by Washington Democrats under the Clinton Administration because in this land of entitlement all Americans "are entitled to a home", regardless of what kind of deadbeats they are. Most investors think that Obama's plans for draconian taxes on successful business and "redistribution of the wealth" will lead to another Great Wall Street crash. He's The One alright, that is if The One is worse than Hoover.

Personal Loans| 12.4.08 @ 1:33AM

Yet it will be a Cabinet for the ages. It’s all about President-elect Barack Obama’s picks for Cabinet. They’ve been announced, and critics are wondering how he’s going to manage such a strong group. “I’m a believer in strong personalities and strong opinions,” said Obama, and he’s going to get all of that. Political veterans who are used will lead national security and economic policy teams to being number one. As far as matters of national security go, Obama will team Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Vice President Joe Biden, retired four-star Marine Gen. Jim Jones as national security adviser and four-star Gen. David Petraeus as chief of U.S. Central Command. The economic team Obama has put together is also impressive: National Economic Council head Larry Summers, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker as the lead of Obama’s economic recovery advisory board. White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel has been described as “hard-charging,” adding another strong personality into a governing mix that could be volatile if Obama proves unable to rein them in with a firm, pragmatic hand. Like a payday loan that takes a bite out of a budgeting battle, Obama is poised to glean wisdom from this powerful group. He may be looking to further build upon the Democratic Party’s recent gains, but if he’s going to do so, he’ll have to be able to go toe-to-toe with a roomful of political giants.

pigment Red| 4.4.10 @ 6:06AM

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