The American Spectator : The Spectacle Blog : Re: These Polls Can't All Be Right

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Re: These Polls Can't All Be Right

By John Tabin on 10.23.08 @ 1:45PM

Why not? Perhaps lots of undecideds are moving into McCain's column, but they're concentrated in red states, while meanwhile somewhat fewer undecideds are moving into Obama's column, but they're concentrated in battleground states. Since the battleground states are where Obama is campaigning, this doesn't seem crazy to me.

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W. James Antle III| 10.23.08 @ 2:39PM

Because national trends and swing-state trends, especially when we're talking about large swing states, tend not to be completely independent of each other. Because we would really have to be talking about "lots of undecideds" moving toward McCain in red states for him to gain ground nationally while watching double-digit deficits worsen in the battlegrounds. It is more likely that the pollsters have differing assumptions about turnout, voter ID, etc. than that we are seeing almost all the battleground states defy a national trend toward McCain. Unless something big changed while these various polls were being taken.