The American Spectator : The Spectacle Blog : Don't Trust Zogby

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Over the weekend there was a Zogby poll showing that Obama's national lead had narrowed to 3 points. "For the first time in the polling McCain is up above 45 percent," John Zogby said. "There is no question something has happened." It caused excitement among some conservatives, but I didn't post on it because it was an outlier and I've generally found Zogby polls unreliable (he predicted Kerry would win, after all). But now, just three days later, the new poll shows a near 10-point lead for Obama, and Zogby says: "Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment..." Wherever you think the race is now, does anybody think that Obama gained so much ground on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday that the race went from a dead heat, to a realignment? Give me a break. It's fair to say that Zogby data should be completely disregarded from now on as junk.

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WendyG| 10.22.08 @ 10:34AM

Thanks for posting this. I was feeling pretty glum after glancing at Drudge this morning. Here's what's blowing my mind right now. You really can't say the truth about Obama hasn't been put out there, at least to some degree. It's obvious he's a leftist, and a radical, or has radical associations. Once upon a time, and too long ago, he could never have gotten elected POTUS, or even been considered. JFK, another young untested Senator when he was elected, was lots of things that might be termed liberal, but he was a patriot to his DNA. He loved America - traditional America. I wish I could say the same for Obama and his devotees. So what does all this say about our country? Why are people like Colin Powell and Ken Adelman jumping on this bandwagon? I am mystified. Utterly mystified, and very sad for my country.

Jack C| 10.22.08 @ 10:52AM

the polls cannot be trusted and always favor the dems.The old saying lies, damn lies, & statistics (polls) Both Ann Coulter & Thomas Sowell had good recent articles on the subject.
Sowells article can be found here
http://www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/sowell1021b08.php3
and Coulters article is currently on her home page and also reprinted elsewhere.
http://www.anncoulter.com/

I beleive there is a huge McCain underground lingering. I just hope they go out and vote

Mike| 10.22.08 @ 9:23PM

Well, Philip, your columns should be disregarded as junk, because your understanding of the fields of politics and polling show you to be a very shallow pool. The polls were not moving for Obama and against McCain because of some big news event, but because of McCain's own inability to connect with voters. At a time when voters are just really tuning in to the election, McCain is trying to "turn the page" on the economy story and talk about something else - mainly Bill Ayres, et al. The point is that almost everyone else in America is still obsessed with a stock market in freefall and credit still frozen stiff. And, by the way, they are absolutely set against politicos who attack their opponent this year. Just plug in your brain for a moment and think about what you know about the electorate - Congressional approval ratings at 9 percent - and you realize that voters dislike all politicos, so one dumping on another creates a negative backlash likes pigs in a mudpit. Which, based on your reasoning, is likely where you learned about polling and politics.