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The Spectacle Blog
Some people -- both Republican and Democrat -- have been expecting that the reluctance of white voters to vote for a black man might be a headwind against Barack Obama. But the Politico's Ben Smith finds evidence that Bush fatigue and GOP "brand damage" may be so severe as to negate the so-called Bradley Effect:
Anecdotes from across the battlegrounds suggest that there's a significant minority of prejudiced white voters who will swallow hard and vote for the black man. "I wouldn't want a mixed marriage for my daughter, but I'm voting for Obama," the wife of a retired Virginia coal miner, Sharon Fleming, told the Los Angeles Times recently. One Obama volunteer told Politico after canvassing the working-class white Philadelphia neighborhood of Fishtown recently, "I was blown away by the outright racism, but these folks are … undecided. They would call him a [racial epithet] and mention how they don't know what to do because of the economy."
The most bizarre anecdote I've heard in this regard -- so bizarre that I suspect it's an urban legend -- was told by pro-Obama blogger Sean Quinn:
So a canvasser goes to a woman's door in Washington, Pennsylvania. Knocks. Woman answers. Knocker asks who she's planning to vote for. She isn't sure, has to ask her husband who she's voting for. Husband is off in another room watching some game. Canvasser hears him yell back, "We're votin' for the n-----!" Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: "We're voting for the n-----."
Like I said, that may be apocryphal, but there is no doubt that many voters now feel toward the Republican Party such a deep rage as to overcome all other considerations.
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More Blog Posts by Robert Stacy McCain
http://spectator.org/blog/2008/10/18/dont-bet-on-the-bradley-effect
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Captain America| 10.18.08 @ 6:44PM
All this talk about the Bradley Effect I find disturbing.
How about the O.J. Effect? The fact that over 85% of blacks, according to some polls, will vote for Obama suggests the same response by blacks to the verdict of the O.J. murder case.
Charles| 10.18.08 @ 9:53PM
Question if they can't stand Republicans how could you like Demmocrats, Surrender, tax & spend, class warfare, look around at the states of Mass, Calif , Mich , Louisiana all Demmocrat majorities broken budgets, Economies,promises, cash in the freezer Jefferson, negligent Nagel, marriage of misdeeds between Herb Moses and Barney Frank wink wink nod nod, traditional values trashed everywhere and branded racisim. common sense has left this nation one ignorant fool at a time. certainly Republicans are complicent but good god what is accorn but a child of the Demmocrats. ultimately America you get the goverment you deserve and the judge is at the door.
M. Tobias| 10.19.08 @ 11:56AM
Mr. McCain, I realize that, having called the race for Obama, you now have a vested interest in creating a self-fulfilling prophesy, but this is becoming ridiculous.
If the polls are to be believed, then Barack Obama will win the general election. If he doesn't, then screams of Republican voter fraud normally make the 2000 and 2004 elections look like grade school elections. Now intelligent people realize that polls, as a scientific method, are just about as accurate as the casting of runes or the reading of entrails as a means of divination. But, the pollsters and the media have sold the American people on the idea that that polls are nearly infallible.
So, if all of the polls have Barack ahead on election day and he loses, it must be fraud, right? The Democrats know that they are the only ones actively engaged in gross voter fraud, not the Republicans. And that any in-depth investigation into possible fraud will show up their efforts much more glaringly than any activities of the Republicans. Yet, they still they have to have a reason for the One's defeat. Enter the Bradley Effect. See, it has to be racism. Look for more reports on latent racism among white voters to be aired in the days to come. If the threat of being branded racist doesn't secure an Obama win, then the loss will be charged to racism.
Beej| 10.19.08 @ 10:43PM
Arrggghhh! Whether or not the Bradley Effect exists, it doesn't rely on people being too racist to vote for the black man. It relies on people saying they'll vote for the black man because they believe that to be the politically correct answer so they give it to the pollster. They could be voting for the other man for any reason under the sun and it just doesn't enter into the Bradley Effect theory.
Beej| 10.19.08 @ 10:49PM
BTW, I've never been able to respond to you on your blog because the program asks for visual verification of whatever is in the box and gives me a completely blank box. There's nothing there to verify. I'm pretty sure I've tried it with each of my browsers (Firefox, Netscape and Internet Explorer). I'm mystified that others are able to post there.
Robert Stacy McCain| 10.19.08 @ 11:10PM
Mr. Tobias, I am aware that I offended you (and many others) with my earlier article. For the offense, I apologize. For the facts, however, no apology is necessary. I have been wrong before, and will doubtless be wrong again, but I assure you if I have erred, it was an error made in good faith. Please do not mistake me for an enemy.
Leo| 10.19.08 @ 11:24PM
I can't stand the American Spectator bloggers, yet I keep coming back, it's like gawking at a car accident, I suppose.
Kevin Dunn| 10.20.08 @ 1:28AM
I wonder if Colin Powell's endorsement may not have actually hurt Obama. It may create an impression that blacks stick together against whites come what may, and thus resurrect the race issue the Obama campaign has largely buried.
The question might be asked: Who would Powell have endorsed if skin-colors (nothing else) had been reversed and McCain had been a black war-hero and admiral's son and Obama a white with a history of extremist and subversive connections?