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Frequently when I express pessismism about McCain's electoral prospects, people bring up the 1980 election. The polls said that race was close too, but Ronald Reagan won in a landslide -- by nearly 10 points in the popular vote and with the electoral votes of 44 states. But that example may bolster my case rather than theirs. If you accept the theory that McCain is the quasi-incumbent, since he is running as the nominee of the incumbent party, then Obama is in the Reagan role and McCain is reprising Carter.

If Obama can close the sale the way Reagan did, he can win the election. The fact that several national polls still show Obama with only a small lead means that he hasn't completely closed the sale and McCain has at least some chance. But if I were running for president, I'd rather be in Obama's shoes right now.