A new Washington Post/ABC News poll
(story
here, full data
here) has Obama opening up a 6-point lead over McCain in Ohio,
a state that is a must win for Republicans. While voters still
trust McCain more on handling terrorism and the war in Iraq, Obama
now has a 13 point edge when it comes to handling the economy. If
this were 2004, McCain would be in strong position -- after all,
Ohio exit polls last time around showed that a combined 30 percent
of voters considered terrorism or Iraq their most important issue
compared with 24 percent who cited the econmy/jobs. However, in the
new Post/ABC poll, just 9 percent of
Ohioans chose Iraq or terrorism, while 52 percent identified
"economy/jobs" as their most important issue. Also, in 2004, the
much-discussed moral values issues were the most important to 23
percent of the Ohio electorate, and Bush dominated among the group.
In the Post/ABC poll, however, moral/family
values were named by just 1 percent of participants. If you define
the term more broadly to include ethics/honesty/corruption in
government and abortion, that gets you up to a total of 8 percent
for values-related issues. The bottom line, as I mentioned
last week, is that the presidential campaign has largely been
overtaken by events. The economy is now the
issue and the Democratic candidate has a built in advantage because
an unpopular Republican has been in the White House for eight
years. It's difficult to see what McCain can do to change these
basic dynamics.
UPDATE: I will note that the CNN/Time poll has the race in Ohio
tighter, with Obama up 3 points, and a Fox News/Rasmussen poll has
McCain up by 1. Overall, the RCP average has Obama up by
3.8.
topics:
Abortion, Iraq
