Two caveats: First, because of some incredibly bad
transportation luck, I missed the first 17 minutes of the debate,
so if there were knock-out blows during those 17 minutes, I missed
them. Second, I cheated: I watched very closely the CNN response
dial. The dial clearly showed that Obama won. And the dial matched
my impressions. Obama stood toe to toe with McCain on foreign
policy -- McCain was right, and Obama was wrong, but I always put
myself in the role of Rip Van Winkle who knows nothng of the past
20 years and thus is totally open to being convinced, and I thought
Obama was at LEAST as convincing to the unknowledgeable -- and not
only stood toe to toe, but seemed far more likeable, far more
gracious, and far more forward-looking. McCain showed deep
knowledge, but it was all backwards looking. Obama sounded almost
as knowledgeable, and far more reasonable in outlook and
temperament. McCain missed numerous chances to explain that IF he
had been listened to in 2003, we would ALREADY have won in Iraq,
and would be thus able to have moved on. Instead, he briefly
mentioned that he was right in 2003, but then dropped it, and then
kept repeating the same things again and again about the surge.
This last was important. Both men did well on the CNN viewer
dials almost throughout. McCain consistently scored probably about
a 5.8 or a 6 on a 10-point scale. Obama consistently scored about
6.5 or so (these precise numbers are my visual judgments from
watching TV; obviously, they are falsely precise: I don't have the
actual stats.). But toward the end, when McCain changed the subject
to RETURN, unbidden, to Iraq and the surge, it was the only time
all night where either candidate received EXTENDED response below
the midline (5 out of 10). He sounded cranky, off topic, and so
repetitive that it had become tiresome.
Obama actually won style points by repeatedly noting topics on
which he agreed with McCain or credited him. This is a year when
the public is absolutely sick of nastiness and wants evidence that
somebody can lower the volume of discord. McCain might have the
record of reaching across the aisle, but Obama has the style -- and
got that point across tonight brilliantly, just by his attitude.
Conversely, McCain did well once or twice to say that Obama "just
doesn't understand." But when he did it a sixth or seventh time, it
sounded mean and condescending.
Frankly, I was surprised. Just in the last 12 hours I had begun
grudgingly crediting McCain because I thought that his gambit of
sticking his nose into the bailout negotiations had actually turned
out to be surprisingly helpful, in that it got the House
conservatives a hearing at the table in a way they would not have
had. I predicted at about 6:30 to a colleague that McCain would
find a way to rattle Obama tonight; I had one of my "gut feelings,"
like the one I had before the Ryder Cup (correctly in the case of
the Cup), that McCain would have a trap for Obama or would goad him
into a sound-bite mistake. I was wrong. Overall, despite my
criticisms, McCain did okay tonight; I think most AMericans would
be at least semi-comfortable with him as president. But McCain did
NOT knock Obama off stride and Obama was more likeble and quite
sufficiently competent-seeming. Obama started the night ahead in
the polls, and I think he extended his advantage in the debate.
topics:
Transportation, Iraq
