This USA/Today Gallup, which reflects the three day polling
period after the convention, has McCain up 50-46 among registered
voters and by 54-44 among likely voters. I think this is pretty
significant, not just because it shows an 11-point swing as a
result of the Republican convention.
What's also important is that McCain hit the 50 percent mark.
The basic trend we've seen during this general election has been
that both candidates are tied around the mid-40s, then Obama has a
good run, McCain dips to the lower 40s, Obama creeps up, and opens
a 4 to 8 point lead. Then McCain knocks Obama around a bit, and
they ended up tied in the mid-40s again. I've been wondering the
whole time whether McCain would finally hit the 50 percent mark,
because it seemed that there was a group of voters that was
fluctuating between Obama and undecided, while showing resistance
to McCain. Now McCain has broken this cycle.
A few other important notes. On the economy, "Before the GOP
convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he's favored by 3."
It's pretty simple. McCain has an advantage on national security
that is pretty stable, so if Obama cannot capitalize off of working
class economic anxiety and win those voters that eluded him during
the Democratic primaries, he cannot win the election. Obama should
be blowing McCain out of the water on the economy, but it seems
that the constant hammering during the convention on his plans to
raise taxes was effective.
Also, here's the most important aspect of the Palin effect:
"Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less
enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more
enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key
Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by
67%-19%." This was the biggest GOP worry all year -- what to do
about the enthusiasm gap? Would voters turn out for McCain? Would
they stuff envelopes, make calls, and knock on doors? It now
appears that they're much more likely to, and in a close race that
will be a turnout battle, the importance of this development cannot
be overstated.
topics:
Taxes
