That compares with a 4-point bounce for Barack Obama. Today's
Gallup daily tracking poll (which is different
than the USA Today poll I noted
earlier) has McCain up 49 to 45.
The typical bounce coming out of the convention is five
points.
And some more context from the folks at Gallup:
Since 1964, the first election year for which
Gallup could reliably measure convention bounces, there have been
only two examples in which one candidate consistently trailed until
the time of his party's convention, but took the lead after and
never relinquished it. Those occurred in 1988 for the elder George
Bush and 1992 for Bill Clinton.
But there are also examples where a consistently
trailing candidate took the lead after his party's convention, but
later relinquished it -- Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Al Gore in
2000.
So basically, your guess is as good as anybody's. But there's one
point worth making. All along, it's been assumed that the
conventions would favor Obama, because whenever he gets to give a
major teleprompter speech to a huge national audience, he has an
advantage. His convention speech was supposed to be the most
significant moment of his campaign. Yet it turns out that the
conventions were acually better for McCain. And now we move on to
the season of debates and unscripted moments, which is where McCain
tends to shine.
topics:
Barack Obama, Bill Clinton
