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AmSpecBlog
Obama Gets His Bounce, Now Up 6 Points
Barack Obama has so far received anywhere from a 5 to 8 point bounce from the Democratic National Convention (depending on when it's measured from), and now leads John McCain 48 to 42 in the latest Gallup tracking poll.
Gallup notes:
There is a lag of sorts involved in the daily
tracking; interviewing is conducted in most parts of the country
before that evening's high-focus speeches have taken place. Thus,
the current three-day average would reflect any impact of Monday
night's speech by Michelle Obama, and Tuesday night's speech by
Hillary Clinton, but would not completely reflect Wednesday night's
lineup of speakers, such as John Kerry, former President Bill
Clinton, and vice presidential nominee Joe Biden, nor the
appearance on stage at the end of the evening by Barack Obama
himself.
Since I thought last night was the strongest, I would say that this
is a solid but not overwhelming bounce for Obama. With McCain's VP
choice set to be formally announced tomorrow (though possibly
leaked this evening) and the Republican National Convention
starting up on Monday, any bounce is likely to be short-lived.
Remember that Obama went up by 9 points initially when on his
European trip, but that quickly evaporated as McCain unvieled a
series of sharp attacks, including the celebrity ad. Really, we
won't see any meaningful polling until the week of Sept. 8, after
Americans have digested both conventions. But it's hard to look
away.
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