I don't agree with everything Jay Cost says here but these five points strike
me as spot-on:
(1) The macro conditions favor the Democrats in a way
we have not seen in at least 28 years.
(2) In response, the Democrats nominated a candidate with
relatively little governing experience and a background quite
different from white voters, who swing presidential elections.
(3) The Republicans nominated a candidate who built a national
reputation by disagreeing with George W. Bush in particular and the
Republican Party in general, in the hopes that this man is immune
from the public disaffection with the GOP.
(4) The public now gets to choose a man with little experience
and a different background, or a semi-Republican. They're not sure
which one they want. And because there are two wars on, a credit
crisis, a weak economy, and high gas prices - they're taking their
sweet time in deciding.
(5) Anybody who tells you what is going to happen is probably
trying to sell you something.
My only minor quibble would be that the Republicans nominated
McCain more by accident than as part of some master plan and the
Democrats nominated Obama in no small part because the more
experienced Democrats had been too timid to oppose the war in
2002-03.