The idea that John McCain would benefit from picking a
pro-choicer is rooted in the assumption that he already has locked
up the base. In his recent case for Joe Lieberman, for instance,
John Podhoretz wrote that, "McCain no longer has to close the
sale with conservatives," bizarrely citing as evidence the fact
that there are two best selling anti-Obama books.
But examining actual data on the white evangelical vote just
released by Pew tells a different story. At first glance, it looks
like McCain is doing quite well -- he's beating Obama 68-24 among
this group, which is virtually identical to the 71-24 advantage
Bush had over Kerry in August of 2004. However, if you take a
deeper look at the numbers, it turns out that McCain's support is
much softer -- only 28 percent "strongly" support McCain, compared
to 57 percent who "strongly" supported Bush.
What this says to me is that if McCain continues his outreach to
evangelicals, he'll see his numbers improve and may end up with
comparable numbers as Bush (and this survey was taken prior to
McCain's strong performance at Saddleback and the subsequent focus
on Obama's extreme pro-choice views). However, as it is, the less
enthusiastic support makes me wonder about turnout. In Ohio, for
instance, if evangelical turnout dropped just a few points at the
same time that Obama was able to boost black turnout, that could
very well be the ball game. If McCain continues to send the right
signals to this voting bloc, he may very well be fine. But, based
on these numbers, it seems he doesn't have much wiggle room to
gamble on a pro-choice pick.Â
topics:
John McCain, Books
