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This Rasmussen poll is an anomalous outlier, so I'm keeping a grain or two of salt handy, but -- holy kamoley! McCain 52, Obama 42 in Ohio!

Given the parlous state of the Ohio GOP, which underwent a near-total meltdown in the 2006 midterms, if Ohio is solid for McCain, it would be the best news for Republicans in a long time. Other polls of Ohio have been mixed, but none has shown McCain leading by double digits in the state since last fall. It's possible that the Marc Dann scandal has hurt Democrats in Ohio -- a state which, it should be remembered, was won by Hillary Clinton in the primaries.

A Detroit News poll showing a dead heat in Michigan and a tie in the Rasmussen daily tracking poll constitute still further evidence that Obama has problems stateside that are unlikely to be helped by his European excursion.

The New Republic's Nate Silver notices the Ohio numbers and also sees American Research Group polls indicating a shift toward McCain in Florida and New Hampshire -- neither of which is in Europe or the Middle East.

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Hillary Clinton