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Barack Obama arrived in Afghanistan today to begin his weeklong overseas excursion. Will it help or hurt him? As of today, the Gallup tracking poll has Obama ahead by 2 points (45-43%) and Rasmussen has Obama tied with John McCain (46-46%), and the Real Clear Politics average is Obama by 4.2 points.

The trip will be over by July 27 and, allowing three weekdays of daily tracking polls to assess the overall impact, we should have a preliminary verdict in the Gallup/Rasmussen numbers of July 31, with other polls released in the following week to verify. So, if Obama's foreign adventure succeeds, he should have a definite lead in the two tracking polls by July 31. Otherwise . . .

topics:
John McCain, Barack Obama