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Democratic operative Susan Estrich, who ought to know, points out the obvious:

July polls don't tell you who's going to win in November. Just ask President Dukakis or President Gore, both of whom were well ahead in July and went on to lose in the fall. . . .
The polls make me nervous. Not desperate, not hopeless, not resigned, but nervous. Barack Obama should be ahead right now. Way ahead. . . . . But the fact that my old candidate Mike Dukakis was running better 20 years ago against George Bush than Obama is today against John McCain makes me nervous.

The latest Rasmussen tracking poll has it a tie (46%-46%) and five of the eight most recent national polls have Obama's lead at 3 points or less.

UPDATE: The Keith Olbermann of libertarians, David Weigel nominates Estrich for "stupidest column of the day." Weigel went to school in Chicago -- Northwestern University, to be exact -- and he's neutral toward Obama the way Harry Carey was neutral toward the Cubs.

topics:
John McCain, Barack Obama