The conventional wisdom is that with liberal voters desperate to
return to the White House and conservatives tepid about the
Republican nominee, Bob Barr will be a much bigger threat to McCain
than Ralph Nader will be to Obama. But a new CNN
poll suggests just the opposite.
The poll has Obama beating McCain 50-45 in a head-to-head match
up, but:
In a four-way matchup that includes independent candidate Ralph
Nader and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, Obama's lead over McCain
dwindles to 3 percentage points, 46 percent to 43 percent. (Nader
registers 6 percent, and Barr gets 3 percent.)
It's hard to know what to make of this, since I
haven't seen any other polls reflecting such a strong showing for
Nader. I would have thought that with the most liberal candidate
since George McGovern on the ticket and with Nader's controversial
charge that Obama was "talking white," that the old consumer advocate
wouldn't be able to pull off anything like he did in 2000. I'm
still pretty much of that view. But maybe the far left won't have
as much tolerance for Obama's general election
moves to the center as I've assumed. His reversal on FISA and
initial rejection of Wesley Clark's comments seem to have struck a
particular nerve. Kos and Arianna Huffington have both registered their
discontent with Obama. Just another wild card to keep an eye
on.