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What are we, Obamacons? Who cares if Team Obama does things that don't make logistical sense? But, in their limited defense, I'd say this: If Obama and McCain are tied but Obama has a better organization, a spending advantage, more enthusiastic supporters, and statistically significant leads in battleground states, Obama has to be favored even if he massively underperforming generic Democrats. So his campaign may feel a little leeway to take risks that the national polling doesn't seem to justify. Or this could be a head fake, like sending Cheney to Hawaii and New Jersey or making the inevitable Republican "play" for California. But if the Obamanians blow it by chasing caribou in a frosty red state when they needed to be locking down Ohio or Florida, they blow it.

MORE: Just to be clear, I'm not ruling out the possibility that the Obama people are in over their heads and flailing about wildly. I'm just saying it's a little early to determine whether they are brilliant, incompetent, or just believing their own press releases.