To have a real impact on the race, Bob Barr has to be able to do
two things that are both in tension with each other. He needs to
mobilize Ron Paul's grassroots supporters and donors. Without those
people, he isn't going to have a base much larger than the
300,000-400,000 people who normally vote Libertarian. He also isn't
going to have the money to spread his message, the people doing
canvassing to get out the vote, and the volunteer base to run a
more serious than usual third-party campaign. But to threaten
McCain and get an even larger number of votes, he needs to reach
out to the Rush Limbaugh Republicans.
Barr is obviously attempting to do both with mixed results. If
he only appeals to the talk-radio crowd, he will lose money,
momentum, and the benefits of energetic activists -- and have to
rely totally on voters who won't do much for him and are most
likely to gravitate back to McCain in a close race. If he only
appeals to the Ron Paul Republicans, his vote totals can be larger
than the usual Libertarian but potentially not big enough -- or
taken from the right places -- to effect the outcome of the
presidential race. If Barr is seen as too close to the Code Pink
antiwar types, he will alienate the Rush Limbaugh Republicans. If
he is too conventionally conservative and insufficiently antiwar,
he will lose the Ron Paul Republicans. It's a delicate balance but
it makes sense that he try to reach it.