I just spent some time analyzing the results of the latest
WSJ/NBC poll, and thought a few
things were worth noting.
While Obama has enjoyed a post-nomination bounce, it's more like
the type of bounce you'd get from a rusty pogo stick that's been
sitting in the garage for ten years. Obama now leads McCain by 6
points, 47-41, which is just a three-point swing from the previous
poll. To put this in better context, the public favors a generic
Democrat over a generic Republican by a much higher 51-35 spread,
so Obama is underperforming and McCain is outperforming.
Obama continues to have a problem with white males -- McCain
holds a 20-point lead among this group. On the other hand, Obama
holds a 34-point lead among Hispanics, a group that he had trouble
with during the primaries and that Bush made significant headway
with in 2004. Obama also enjoys a 19-point lead among women --
perhaps that's another argument in favor of tapping Sarah Palin as
a VP.
Some more notes:
--In one of the most troubling signs for McCain,
the poll shows that by a 60-38 margin, more Americans who say they
are voting for McCain see their vote as a vote
against Obama and the Democratic Party rather than
for McCain. But Obama voters by a 50-48
margin, are actually voting for Obama. The candidate who wins
typically gives people a reason to vote for him rather than just
against his opponent. We saw this in 2004, as Democratic voters
weren't that crazy about John Kerry, but they supported him because
they hated President Bush so much. Anti-Bush sentiment alone wasn't
enough for Kerry, and I don't think McCain will win on anti-Obama
feeling.
--However, public attitudes on the Iraq War are trending in John
McCain's direction, as Americans favor withdrawing troops by the
beginning of 2009 over remaining until the situation is stable by a
mere 49 to 45 margin. As recently as this April, the margin was 55
to 40. So that's an 11-point swing to McCain's position in just two
months.
--Despite all the talk about how unpopular Hillary Clinton is,
Obama would stretch his lead over McCain to 9 points in a
hypothetical Obama-Clinton vs. McCain-Romney ticket. My guess is
that has to do more with Romney's unpopularity than positive
sentiment for Clinton.
topics:
Sarah Palin, Hillary Clinton, Iraq
