David Frum opens a sensible call for the Republicans
to get with it on health care reform with this jarring line: "If
the 2008 presidential election were all about Iraq, John McCain
would win." To back up this counterintuitive assertion, he cites
the "authoritative Pew poll" which he says shows increasing public
optimism about the Iraq war and only a small minority -- 14 percent
-- in favor of an "immediate withdrawal."
It's true that the recent decline in casualties, both American
and Iraqi, following the surge has reduced antiwar sentiment
somewhat and perhaps reduced its intensity even further. But it's
quite a leap to suggest that the war has become popular or a net
plus for Republicans, and if McCain and the GOP campaign that way
they will be every bit as far removed from the country as any
conservative pining for 1980. There is an awful lot of polling data in addition to Pew's survey
that suggests the war remains unpopular. That includes the decision
to go to war, the administration's handling of the war, and any
indefinite presence in Iraq. The public understands an immediate
withdrawal, which neither candidate is seriously proposing or
likely to deliver, is impractical and is willing to be somewhat
more patient about exit strategies post-surge. But they still
simultaneously want to win and get out.
That doesn't mean that there aren't ways McCain could frame the
war, short of taking my own position, that turns Iraq into a
winning issue. McCain has been moving toward an effective Iraq message. If the debate shifts to
which candidate would draw down faster and under which conditions,
McCain might also be able leverage his greater foreign-policy and
military experience to Barack Obama's deteriment. The public might
trust McCain's ability to "handle" the war more than Obama's or
even Bush's. But that's not quite the same as claiming that the war
is a political boon in its own right.
topics:
Health Care, John McCain, Barack Obama, Military, Iraq
