The hurry among the press and pundits to predict whether Hillary
will or will not concede, and when, overlooks the question of
incentives. Hillary’s got an estimated $10 million campaign debt,
she feels cheated and insulted, and Team Obama’s got to offer
something in return for her concession. If they don’t want to deal
— say, a flat-out guarantee to pay off her debt — then Hillary
says, “Fine. I’ll fight on. Whatever it takes.”
Compared to running campaign offices and TV advertising in
different states, it’s relatively cheap for Hillary to maintain a
post-primary skeleton campaign. She and her proxies just make the
circuit of TV news programs with their “we wuz robbed” mantra, and
the campaign continues. If Team Obama wants to convince her not to
do that, they’ll have to deal.
Hillary may surprise me and concede on TV tonight, but it would
be a surprise.