Ross Douthat's prediction that Bob Barr will only do about as
well as Pat Buchanan in 2000 is obviously the safest way to bet.
Third-party challenges on the right have tended to do poorly unless
the candidate has some unconservative elements that also allow him
to win significant non-conservative support (think George Wallace
in 1968 and Ross Perot in both his presidential runs). More purely
right-wing third-party candidates have had less impact. John
Schmitz, then a sitting Republican congressman, took 1.4 percent of
the popular vote in 1972. Ron Paul received just 0.5 percent as the
Libertarian Party nominee in 1988, although I agree he would do
much better today partly because he could reach beyond the right.
Buchanan, the biggest-name recent conservative to bolt the GOP, won
only 0.4 percent. The Constitution Party has never even cracked
200,000 votes nationally, other smaller right-wing parties have
fared worse.
Douthat is right that there is a "more favorable landscape for a
right-of-center protest candidate" than in 2000 but Barr lacks
Buchanan's "charisma, celebrity and committed followers." But Barr
is famous enough, especially among the conservative talk-radio set,
and his resume of red-meat Republicanism in the 1990s and
harder-line libertarianism in recent years may help him put
together an unlikely coalition of Ron Paul Republicans and Rush
Limbaugh Republicans. The more of the latter group he brings in,
the more he can serve as a Ralph Nader of the right than a
Buchanan.
Some of this depends on how much Barr wants to risk being seen
as responsible for John McCain's defeat. Buchanan really didn't
want to elect Al Gore -- he ran for the Reform Party nomination
partly on the premise that Gore was going to beat George W. Bush
anyway -- and usually campaigned that way. Many of his supporters
didn't want to elect Gore either, as evidenced by his steady drop
in the polls as the Bush-Gore race tightened. Barr's success will
also depend on his ability to win the Libertarian nomination
without taking positions on issues like immigration that repel anti-McCain conservatives. Most
of all, however, it depends on his ability to win the Libertarian
nomination, period.
topics:
John McCain, Constitution, Libertarianism, Immigration
