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In the latest example of the rough terrain ahead for Republicans in the congressional races -- even in friendly territory -- Democrat Don Cazayoux beat Republican Woody Jenkins in a special congressional election. The seat had been held by Republican Richard Baker, making this a Democratic pickup. Yes, Cazayoux is fairly conservative. Yes, Jenkins is a deeply polarizing figure and two-time statewide loser (though I think a case could be made that he actually did win the 1996 Senate race). Yes, he could have run a more professional campaign. Yes, the election was close. But there have been too many examples of this trend to explain away.