Up until now, the Obama campaign has understandably resisted
efforts to seat Florida and Michigan, but looking at the rough
delegate count, I'm starting to wonder if that's a mistake. For
months, there has been a logjam in the Democratic race because
Clinton cannot realistically catch Obama among pledged delegates,
but Obama still needs superdelegates to put him over the top. This
reality has allowed Clinton to stay in the race in the hope that
she can convince the superdelegates that Obama is unelectable. But
seating Florida and Michigan, while eating into Obama's delegate
lead, would change these dynamics, and put Obama in the driver's
seat to clinch the nomination without having to worry about the
quirky superdelegates.
(To be clear, all of the following tabulations are sort of back
of the envelope meant to test this theory, and shouldn't be taken
precisely.)
If you look at the the RealClearPolitics count, Obama is about 300 delegates
away from winning the nomination. If he and Clinton roughly split
the delegates in the remaining primaries (this is being charitable
to Clinton), he'll end the primary season about 100 delegates short
of victory, thus requiring superdelegates.
But Florida would have had 210 delegates were it not
penalized. Let's say for the sake of discussion, those were
allocated based on the popular vote. Clinton, who won
50 percent of the vote, would get 110 delegates, and Obama, with
his 33 percent, would gain 70. (Give Edwards the remaining
delegates.)
If you proceed to Michigan, the most favorable settlement for
Clinton, Marc Ambinder notes, would be "the 73-to-55
delegate split that the Clinton campaign would obtain from the
results of the primary, with almost all of the uncommitted
delegates being pledged to Obama."
While both of these actions would cut into Obama's delegate
lead, he'd still have a cushion of about 70 delegates over Clinton
going into the remaining primaries. But more importantly, he would
gain around 120 delegates, putting himself in the position to win
the nomination without having to worry about superdelegates (by my
rough calculations he can do so by winning around 43 percent of the
delegates in the remaining contests).
Not only would taking such action allow Obama to get a clean
win, it would enable the Florida and Michigan delegations to be
seated, allow him to take the high road, and take away a major
argument from Clinton. Of course, once she realizes this, Clinton
may do a total about face, and suddenly protest counting Florida
and Michigan, but then that would just be great theater.
UPDATE: Quin notes that if the Florida and Michigan were seated,
by expanding the overall universe of delegates, it would raise the
threshhold Obama would have to meet to gain the nomination, thus
changing the calculations above.