When I was in Pennsylvania a few weeks ago covering the primary
there, I spoke to a man who could be described as a classic swing
voter. While he was leaning toward Hillary Clinton in the primary,
he said he'd reevaluate his choices in a general election. When I
asked him what the most important issues were to him, he mentioned
bringing troops home from Iraq, which you'd think would put him
firmly in the Democratic camp. But he said he'd be perfectly
willing to vote for John McCain in November. He described how, no
matter what the candidates say, they aren't going to be able to
just pull out right away, it may take a long time. And he noted
that McCain was quoted out of context with his "100 years" comment,
and said perhaps McCain's right that we'll have troops there for
decades like in Korea.
A lot of pundits look at the polls showing a significant
majority of Americans think the war was a mistake and want to bring
the troops home, and assume that McCain's strong support for the
Iraq War will be a drag on his candidacy. Obviously this is just
one voter, but what struck me at the time, was that things are a
lot more complicated than that. In any poll on Iraq, this man would
have been recorded as supporting pulling out of Iraq and thus seen
as more sympathetic to Democrats, yet at the same time, he
appreciates the complexity of the situation and is perfectly open
to voting for McCain. I wondered, how many others like him are out
there?
Rasmussen is out with
a report showing McCain outperforming the generic Republican
label on and beating Obama and Clinton on a number of issues.
I found this particularly interesting:
Tracking polls have shown that roughly 6-out-of-ten
Americans want troops home from Iraq within a year. However, only
about one-in-four want the troops brought home immediately. The gap
between those numbers is filled by Americans who both parties have
a chance to persuade during Election 2008. Overall, when it comes
to Iraq, Democrats are currently trusted more by 45% of voters and
the GOP is trusted more by 43%. However, when it comes to the War
in Iraq, McCain is trusted by more than either Democrat. Fifty
percent (50%) trust McCain over Clinton while 40% hold the opposite
view. Forty-eight percent (48%) trust McCain over Obama while 39%
prefer Obama.
If the electorate is focused on pulling troops out, McCain is in a
tough spot. But if voters believe that the reality is a lot more
complicated, and the issue becomes a matter of who they think would
do a better job
handling the sitiation, I
think McCain has more than a fighting chance to make this into a
winning issue.
Via Dave Freddoso.
topics:
Election 2008, John McCain, Hillary Clinton, Iraq
