This Weekly Standard piece by Reihan Salam does a nice job laying
out the difficult road ahead for both Barack Obama and John McCain.
Assuming that Hillary Clinton does not blow the race back open by
beating Obama in Indiana and North Carolina next Tuesday, she has
given McCain the blueprint -- and some of the talking points -- for
victory over Obama. Although Salam discusses minority outreach
possibilities, the key question is whether the working-class white
voters Obama has consistently lost to Clinton can be won by
McCain.
Despite Obama's losses in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, we
don't really know the answer. These voters are feeling worse about
the economy than they did in 2004 and, as Salam documents, the
Republican brand is tarnished. (Upcoming special elections in
Mississippi and Louisiana may indicated how tarnished.)
Pace Thomas Frank, social conservatism tends to trump
bread and butter issues when these voters feel most economically
secure. Obama has serious electability problems -- and so does
McCain.
topics:
John McCain, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Conservatism
