Drudge links to this cover story from Britain's Independent with a headline screaming, "USA 2008: The
Great Depression," which is atrocious.
It should be noted that recession technically occurs when there
are two consecutive quarters of contraction in the economy, yet
there is no evidence that this has been the case thus far. Last
week, revised numbers pegged growth in the fourth quarter of 2007 at
0.6 percent -- that's slow, but it still is growth. The first
quarter of this year ended yesterday, and perhaps when the initial
GDP is released for the quarter it will show that the economy
contracted, suggesting we are in fact in a recession. But that is a
far cry from a depression. In 1930, the GDP sank 8.6 percent, and in the most severe year of the
depression, 1932, it dropped 13 percent.
If you want to look at another factor-unemployment-the Independent looks even more silly. In 1930, the
unemployment rate was 8.9 percent, and it reached as high as 24.9
percent in 1933. In February, the U.S. unemployment rate is
4.8 percent, which was once low enough to be
considered "full employment" and actually lower than Britain's.
I'm not even particularly bullish on the U.S. economy right now,
and have significant concerns about the decline of the dollar. This
headline served its purpose by drawing attention to itself. But
this type of alarmism is utterly irresponsible. (And incidentally,
the article itself, about a record number of Americans on food
stamps, doesn't mention anything about a depression).