Reverse engineering intelligence gathered from the Democrat blog sites, informed by the report of a delightfully frantic phone call by Ted Kennedy to the so-called netroots with regard whom among his colleagues he doubts, the Alito filibuster fight centers around eleven Doubtful Democrats.
The Doubtful Democrats are Pryor and Lincoln of Arkansas, Cantwell and Murray of Washington, Baucus of Montana, Dorgan and Conrad of North Dakota, Bayh of Indiana, Lautenberg and Menendez of New Jersey, Lieberman of Connecticut.
Breaking this eleven down, there are six in red states and seven in blue states.
As of this moment, Nelson of Red Nebraska and Byrd of Red West Virginia and Johnson of Red South Dakota are pledged to vote with the GOP for cloture. (Add to this the most likely and all but announced, determined, certain cloture votes of Democrats Dorgan and Conrad of Red North Dakota. )
The summary is that at this moment there are now five reliable Red State Democrats to join fifty-five Republicans for cloture.