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The prevailing view now is that Hillary Clinton needs not only to win but to win big in Texas and Ohio to cut into Obama's delegate lead, or else she's in big trouble. But what became apparent in listening in on their conference calls this week is that the Clinton campaign will take any sort of wins in Texas and Ohio on March 4 and use it as a ticket to Pennsylvania on April 22, and ultimately fight this out until June in Puerto Rico. The Clintons hope to chip away enough at his lead between now and early June, so that the delegate race is close enough so they could make a pitch to superdelegates that Hillary should be the nominee because she won the biggest states--NY, NJ, CA, MA, OH, TX, PA, FL, MI.

This strategy may very well be a long shot, but there's something else to consider that is no doubt playing into the Clintons' thinking. June is more than three months away, and absolutely anything can happen between now and then. Remember, just three months ago, back in November, Hillary was still seen by most as the inevitable nominee. Obama is on the top of his game now, but perhaps over the course of three months he could make a big gaffe, some negative news story could break on him, people could tire of his rhetoric, an international incident could occur that puts a premium on experience, etc. We don't know, but clearly, the longer Clinton can hang in there, the higher the odds that something could happen.

That's why, in my view, even though Obama could technically afford to lose Ohio and Texas as long as the states are close enough, I really think it's important for him to win one of those states, which would essentially finish her off. He can't take any chances.

topics:
Hillary Clinton