Chris, it's not accurate to say that "half of American voters
probably would not vote for a Mormon." Your evidence for this
statement, as you wrote in your piece, is that "a recent
WSJ poll found that half of American voters
voiced 'some reservations' (29 percent) or were 'very
uncomfortable' (21 percent) with even the thought of having a
Mormon in the White House." That's not the same thing as people not
voting for somebody. When the Gallup
poll actually asked that question in December, it found that
just 18 percent of Republicans would not vote for a Mormon. Earlier
last year, Gallup also found that 40 percent of Americans would not
vote for somebody 72 years old, which would be John McCain's age on
election day.
And whether you think it's a good or bad thing, I don't see how
you can deny that it's important for a candidate to emotionally
connect with voters. I don't think bringing Lincoln into this has
any relevance because he did not run in the modern television era.
But the other examples you use demonstrate this. JFK beat LBJ for
the nomination and Nixon in the general election, not because he
was more experienced, but because he was charismatic and people
emotionally connected with him. Bill Clinton beat Bush I because
Bush I was seen as out of touch and Clinton felt people's pain.
Ronald Reagan didn't just make cerebral arguments for conservatism,
but he was able to put conservative principles in human terms. Look
at how far Barack Obama has come this election. If you were to do a
poll asking voters abstractly whether they have "some reservations"
or were "very uncomfortable" with electing a president who only has
three years of national political experience, I'm sure you come up
with a high number. But because Obama has the ability to inspire
through his rhetoric, he's built a movement that may very well
carry him into the White House.
You asked, "What else besides Romney's faith can explain the
ex-governor's poor showing?" Let us count the ways. Is it
inconceivable that primary voters would find his conversions to
conservatism inauthentic? Is it inconceivable that they have a hard
time believing that a man who described himself as pro-choice since
1970 would suddenly become pro-life in 2005? That somebody who once
found McCain reasonable on immigration, would suddenly attack
McCain's position as tantamount to amnesty? That somebody who once
promised to be more pro-gay rights than Ted Kennedy would end up
portraying himself as a social conservative crusader? That somebody
who signed an assault weapons ban in Massachusetts would say he's a
big defender of the Second Amendment, who would veto any such
legislation as president? Are conservatives bigots if they don't
support government mandated health care? Or $20 billion bailouts
for the auto industry? Are they anti-Mormon if they decide that in
a time of war, somebody with national security credentials is
preferable to a one term governor?
Like I've said, there's no doubt in my mind that there were
voters who view Mormonism as a cult and would not vote for Romney
under any circumstances. I've spoken to some of these voters. But
had Romney been a credible conservative and demonstrated to voters
that he has a pulse, he could have won the nomination.
topics:
Health Care, John McCain, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Television, Conservatism, Immigration
