Mark Penn, Hillary Clinton's chief strategist, just sent out a
memo making the case for her path to the nomination. It centers
around the fact that she leads in Ohio, Texas, and
Pennslyvania--though all the polls cited were taken in January, and
do not reflect Obama's latest surge, nor his likely victories in
Hawaii and Wisconsin, nor the weeks of campaigning and millions of
dollars of ads he will put into Ohio and Texas before March 4., or
Pennslyvania on April 22, if necessary.
With that said, here is Penn:
Change Begins March 4th. Hillary leads in the three
largest, delegate rich states remaining: Texas, Ohio and
Pennsylvania. These three states have 492 delegates - 64 percent of
the remaining delegates Hillary Clinton needs to win the
nomination. According to the latest polls, Hillary leads in Texas
(IVR Jan 30-31), Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall Jan 8-14)
and Ohio (Columbus Dispatch Jan 23-31). After March 4th, over 3000
delegates will be committed, and we project that Hillary Clinton
and Barack Obama will be virtually tied with 611 delegates still to
be chosen in Pennsylvania and other remaining states. This does not
even include Florida and Michigan (where Hillary won 178
delegates), whose votes we believe should be counted.
The reason
Hillary is so strong in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania is that her
message of delivering solutions resonates strongly with voters in
those states. Hillary is the only candidate who can deliver the
economic change voters want - the only candidate with a real plan
and a record of fighting for health care, housing, job creation and
protecting Social Security.
The demographics
in these states also favor Hillary Clinton. Hillary won among white
women by 6 points in Virginia and 18 points in Maryland, and white
women make up a much bigger share of the electorate in these states
(41% of 2004 Ohio Democratic primary voters, for instance, compared
with only 33-35% of 2008 Maryland and Virginia Democratic primary
voters). Hillary has also won large majorities among Latinos
nationwide - 73% in New York, 67% in California, 68% in New Jersey,
62% in New Mexico, 59% in Florida and 55% in Arizona. Latinos made
up 24% of Texas Democratic primary voters in 2004, and may be an
even larger share in 2008.
Hillary Clinton
has shown that she has the ability and organization to compete
financially and on the ground. She raised 10 million dollars in
just three days last week, and will be competitive with Barack
Obama in fundraising and TV advertising from now through March 4th
and beyond. She has a strong organization in each of these key
states and endorsements from Governor Strickland, Rep. Stephanie
Tubbs Jones, and former Senator John Glenn in Ohio. Hillary had a
huge 12,000 person rally in El Paso last night to kick off her
Texas campaign.
Again and again,
this race has shown that it is voters and delegates who matter, not
the pundits or perceived "momentum." After Iowa, every poll gave
Barack Obama a strong lead in New Hampshire, but he ended up losing
the state. And after a defeat in South Carolina, Hillary Clinton
went on to win by large margins in California, New York, Florida,
New Jersey, Massachusetts, Arizona, Tennessee, Oklahoma and
Arkansas.
As history shows,
the Democratic nomination goes to the candidate who wins the most
delegates - not the candidate who wins the most states. In 1992,
Bill Clinton lost a string of primaries before clinching the
nomination. He ceded Iowa, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maryland,
Arizona, Washington, Utah, Colorado, Rhode Island, Connecticut,
Delaware, Vermont and South Dakota. Similarly, in 1984, Walter
Mondale also lost a series of major primaries before winning the
nomination, including New Hampshire, Vermont, Florida,
Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, Indiana, Virginia, South
Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, Colorado, Ohio, and California.
And in 1976, Jimmy Carter lost twenty-three states before winning
the nomination, including: Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey,
Maryland, West Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama, Illinois,
Mississippi, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Montana,
Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, California, Arizona, Alaska,
Hawaii, and Utah.
topics:
Health Care, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Social Security, Law, NATO, Alaska
