First, here (from the
Washington Examiner) is
my fullest report about yesterday's conservative reaction to
Romney's speech at CPAC.
Second, here is an absolutely firm prediction (using the sort of
colloquial language Huck himself used when he's pandering): Mike
Huckabee ain't dead yet. I predict a far stronger than "expected"
showing in Virginia next Tuesday, and then a string of contests
where he approaches (and occasionally exceeds) the same vote totals
as McCain. He almost certainly has no shot at denying McCain the
nomination, and probably can't even force an open convention, but
he will continue to pile up delegates.
Here's why: 1) The part of the Evangelical base that is for him
remains absolutely fired up about him -- as do the well organized
fair taxers and home schoolers. And the culturally conservative
protectionists also tend to be passionate, and he's the only
protectionist left standing.
2) The anti-McCain sentiment among many Republican voters is so
incredibly strong that ANY candidate who appears to be the last man
standing against McCain would garner a boatload of votes. Indeed,
in most states, if the Republican ballot listed two candidates, one
being McCain and the other being listed merely as "Mystery Man,"
McCain would still have a hard time getting more than a very small
majority.
Let me elaborate a little more on that point. In most states
where McCain seriously competed both in 2000 and in 2008, his raw
vote count was (I believe) actually far smaller than it was in
2000. He has been "winning" only because the field has been
fractured in at least three, and sometimes as many as six, ways --
and with his name ID combined with his undeniable appeal to a
sizable minority of the electorate, his BASE of the vote most
places is high enough to keep him in the top tier even if more than
two-thirds of the voters in a state can't stand him. But McCain is
far LESS popular among Republicans most places now than he was
eight years ago -- and where he is not less popular in raw numbers,
he is far more detested by the remaining ones who don't like him
than he was detested by those same people eight years earlier.
Result: Just about any mainstream Republican candidate who is in a
one-on-one race vs. McCain would get nearly 50 percent of the vote
by default alone, and in most cases, if no "momentum" were in play,
would stomp McCain into the ground.
3) Huckabee has been playing rope-a-dope. Huck has been letting
all the other candidates take on McCain directly while making nice
to the Arizonan himself. In return, McCain's moral authority (at
least in many minds) has not been used to attack Huck; instead,
McCain has gone after others (most particularly Romney, but also at
times Giuliani and Paul) with a vengeance. Huck has benefitted from
that state of affairs both directly and indirectly, most directly
in West Virginia, where the McCain forces (led by former LA Gov.
Buddy Roemer) saw Huck as so much of an ally that they three all
their support to Huck in order to keep Romney from claiming an
early Super Tuesday victory.
BUT, and this is a key point, Huckabee's people have been licking
their chops at the chance to go against McCain one-on-one. (I have
this on good authority.) They understand the dynamics of points 1
and 2 above, and they also know that McCain has been pounded even
more by conservative talk radio than Huck has -- and that the
vitriol from "full spectrum" conservatives against McCain runs far
deeper than that against Huck, mainly because it has had so much
more time to grow and fester. All Huck need to do is drop a few
clever one-liners, without even a full frontal assault, and he can
effectively undermine a great deal of McCain's raison d'etre.
All of which is to say that Huck is poised and ready for a real
(to employ a much-overused word these days) surge in support. He'll
actually rack up some outright victories, and position himself even
more strongly as a Veep choice.
And McCain, who just doesn't understand or appreciate real
conservatives, may well be dumb enough to choose him. And in so
doing, seal his own doom in the general election (for reasons that
I will have plenty of time on which to elaborate later on).