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I don't dispute that the "Mormon problem" has played some role in the evangelical preference for Huckabee over Romney, or that it is a partial explanation of why those voters might support McCain if Huckabee dropped out of the race. But let's not forget the Massachusetts problem: Romney was to the left of his current positions most social issues except for same-sex marriage until the beginning of 2005 and was even to the left of his current marriage position in 1994. His abortion conversion story isn't very compelling and the timing of these position changes is suspect. Some evangelicals probably just don't trust Romney's claim to be a social conservative.

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Abortion