As everyone’s been saying ad nauseam, there’s been no ideal
conservative in the GOP race all along. A more energetic, gung-ho
Fred might have changed the score, but there was nothing in his
past career to suggest he was up to it. So now conservatives are
stuck with someone they loathe on most fronts and aren’t likely
ever to warm to. The feeling is no doubt mutual. What a contrast to
2000, when they and Bush reached a happy accommodation in order to
win. It’s no accident that marriage ended once Bush was safely
re-elected. If victory is a common goal this time, something
similar will occur, though without any of the warmth (and
illusions) of eight years ago.
Clearly McCain has begun his reach-out, if only in terms of
how he’s labeling himself. But it’s not at all clear if
conservatives will ever be in any mood to reciprocate. None of this
means conservatives are suddenly weaker. For all their strength in
numbers, organizations, and other institutional markers, they’re
not willing to see a repeat of 2000. And if McCain should win in
November, he’ll soon enough be reminded what a dominant faction the
right shall remain.