Not only is Washinton's tentatively agreed-upon "stimulus
package" not likely to do much to help, but it also is almost
certainly absolutely counterproductive (on a macro scale, that is;
for all who receive the "rebates," the immediate, short-term
benefit, when it finally comes in late May or probably June, will
obviously be somewhat helpful).
The package is like pushing on a string. For a problem caused by
lack of investment and production, it takes money away from
investment and production and puts it toward consumption. It is
demand-side stimulus for a supply-side problem. It redistributes
money to individuals in the short run from their own future and
their children's future in the long run. In doing so it adds to the
national debt, which has a tendency to push interest rates higher,
and which thus in some sense, to at least a small extent, crowds
out other investment. Plus, by the time, four or five months away,
when anybody actually starts seeing this money, the circumstances
will be different.
The stimulus will do nothing to change productive behavior, but
instead merely encourage waste.
And the package is a fiscal cure for problems that are not
fiscal in nature but monetary. The problem is not a lack of
dollars, but a weak dollar. It's not a lack of jobs, but the worth
of the earnings. First-time jobless claims actually have fallen for
four weeks in a row.
Conservatives in Congress ought to vote against this idiocy.