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Jim: Keep in mind that Romney has an effectively infinite amount of money, so he can keep running pretty much as long as he wants to. Given how much he's spent on this so far, I wouldn't be shocked to see him stick around through Feb. 5 even if he loses everything in January, however pathetic that might begin to look.

Another thing to keep in mind: Obama is the big story coming out of Iowa, and there's going to be a bandwagon effect that attracts New Hampshire independents to the Democratic race -- independents who would otherwise be voting for McCain. That's got to mitigate the pro-McCain momentum out of Iowa somewhat.

AFTERTHOUGHT: The Obama-siphoning-indies effect is probably bad for Ron Paul, too.