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I know that Fred Thompson still has a lot of fans in the conservative media and among bloggers--and a base of loyal national supporters who are willing to grasp onto anything to report a coming Fred surge, but I haven't detected any signs of it here in Iowa. Of all the events I've been to in both parties, Fred drew the smallest crowd--even Joe Biden and Bill Richardson outdrew him. On the same day that Mike Huckabee attracted about 500 people to a large theater in Ottumwa last Friday, Thompson crammed about 40 people into a tiny conference room at a hotel.

The latest cause of the Fred euphoria is this Zogby poll showing him at 12 percent, in a tie for third place with John McCain. Has the bar really gotten so low for Thompson that after camping out in the state for weeks, he's tied with somebody who has hardly put any resources into the state, and it's cited as evidence of a "surge"?� We're supposed to believe that a narrow third place finish--with him getting less than half the support of the second place candidate--is going to catapult him to a win in South Carolina and on to the nomination? I'll be the first to admit it if I'm wrong, but I really do think that's wishful thinking on the part of the Fredheads. Huckabee remains very strong here on Caucus eve.

topics:
John McCain, Joe Biden