Center-right pundits love "the holiday from history is over"
narratives, so I'm not surprised to see that becoming the
conventional wisdom in the wake of Bhutto's murder. Polling data
will soon enough confirm or refute the idea that the events in
Pakistan will sway our own presidential politics. I suspect it will
influence the Republican primary electorate, which is concerned
about radical Islam, far more than the Democratic electorate, which
seems more interested in a break from the Bush foreign policy than
what that break might entail.
As noted earlier, these events have already pitted John McCain,
who has foreign policy experience but has never run any large
organization, against Mitt Romney, a skilled executive with no
foreign policy experience. But maybe the beneficiary will be Rudy
Giuliani, who can claim a bit of both. I happen to think that the
claims on behalf of his executive prowess are far stronger than
those made on behalf of his foreign policy know-how, but for most
of the past year a plurality of Republicans has regarded Giuliani
as the candidate who best understands the war on terror.
Personally, I'm with Ross Douthat -- the crisis in Pakistan ought to
make us more skeptical of people who claim they can manage the
complex affairs of foreign nations to our benefit rather than less
skeptical. Considering the amount of knowledge required, even the
most skilled and experienced 2008 candidates may as well be reading
from 3 X 5 cards. But if Pakistan figures prominently in the minds
of Republican primary voters, it probably will push them towards
the candidates they view as the strongest leaders.
topics:
Foreign Policy, John McCain, Islam, Pakistan
