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Okay, I want to be the first on record to go way WAY WAY out on a limb here. I retain the right to revise and extend these remarks BEFORE the caucuses, because I have some other feelers out that I need to check thoroughly before this is a definitive prediction. (How's THAT for hedging my bets?!) Anyway, I think this might be the first presidential caucus/primary in history where the FOURTH place winner is the story of the day. In Iowa, I think there is a real chance for Joe Biden to run such a surprisingly strong fourth place finish that he suddenly gets grouped in the top tier of candidates moving forward, with a real chance after that to do well in South Carolina. Again, this is based on preliminary evidence, but UNLESS I revise this prediction BEFORE the caucuses, it will stand as my official prediction. I am picking up signs of unanticipated Biden strength. You heard it here first.

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Joe Biden