Way, way back in the long ago days of
February, I suggested that "The fully frontloaded system
replaces not the slow unfolding of primary and caucus states common
through, say, 1976, but an already semi-frontloaded system instead.
It is the latter, the semi, that produced overly quick ends to the
nomination battles -- but the fully frontloaded system may do just the
opposite.... RATHER THAN PROVIDING UNSTOPPABLE momentum to any one
candidate, in other words, the widespread voting on Feb. 5 could
serve to keep all three "major" candidates and even a couple of
minor ones alive. Nobody could claim a mandate, the vitriol would
continue to grow, and the dissatisfaction already being voiced by
conservatives might take on pandemic proportions."
The idea of a national convention that actually decides
something was very much in my mind.
Anyway, I am still seeing this as a real possibility. Here's the
deal: the two big-money, big-organization candidates, Giuliani and
Romney, are doing slow fades. On the other hand, because they have
such combinations of money, organization, and name ID, they are
likely to keep fighting for quite a while.
Meanwhile, the other three "front runners" COULD all stay alive,
and could actually emerge from South Carolina into what looks
(falsely) like ONLY a three-way battle, with the Rudy-Romney show
apparently dead. Here's how:
Huckabee wins Iowa, but all the well-deserved attacks on him
finally start to sink in, so his victory margin isn't very large.
Finishing a stronger-than-expected second by picking up votes from
a fading Romney and a stumbling Huckabee, while benefiting greatly
from the endorsement of Rep. Steve King, is Fred Thompson. In New
Hampshire, McCain wins with Romney second. In South Carolina,
Thompson ekes out a close win over Huck, with McCain a strong
third. (Nevada will also have gone to McCain, perhaps.)
THEN, pray tell, who is the front-runner? Nobody. All three
candidates will have done well in two out of three contests. All
three will be strong enough to fight another day.
But - AHA -- Florida awaits, with Giuliani suddenly being able
to say, hey, I TOLD you that nothing would be solved by the first
three big contests, so Florida IS indeed relevant -- and,
Floridians, here is your chance to put YOUR stamp on things by
going for me and finally showing those three early states that they
have had the spotlight and power for far too long.....
And so on, with ebbs and flows and rises and falls throughout
the winter and spring. Even Ron Paul will win a state, perhaps
(Alaska).
You heard it here first.
topics:
Alaska
