A number of reasons have been given for Rudy Giuliani's sagging
poll numbers. Some have mentioned the decline of national security as an issue,
last week I brought up Hillary Clinton's loss of
inevitability, and obviously the flurry of NYPD security
stories couldn't have helped. All of these are valid reasons. But I
think another explanation is that we're already seeing the perils
of Giuliani's early state strategy. For months, due to his
celebrity and national frontrunner status, Giuliani was dominating
media coverage for good (taking on the NY
Times, Clinton and MoveOn in defense of Gen. Petraeus) or
ill (answering his cell phone at the NRA). But in the last month,
media attention has shifted from focusing on the national
frontrunner to those doing battle in the early states, even though
they have a lower celebrity profile. Because Giuliani isn't a
factor in those states, he has been boxed out of media coverage,
and even his major speech this Saturday was overshadowed by the
Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney rivalry in Iowa, and John McCain's
potential for a surge in New Hampshire. It's not only affecting the
type of coverage he can get, but also removes him from debates that
would be helpful to him. For instance, if he were in the mix in
Iowa right now, Giuliani could be contrasting his fiscal and
tough-on-crime record with Huckabee's fiscal record and penchant
for granting clemencies to violent criminals. When Huckabee came
out and accused Bush of having an "arrogant bunker mentaility" and
called for talking to Iran like they were a parent or friend who
hasn't been spoken to in awhile, it normally would have been
perfect fodder for Giuliani to go after him and bring the
discussion back to his strength--national security. But because he
isn't competitive in Iowa, he needs Huckabee to take down Romney,
and thus has to sit on the sidelines. Instead, Romney was the one
who took the oppourtunity to defend President Bush and mock
Huckabee's foreign policy statements. By waiting until Florida
rolls around, Giuliani may find himself crowded out of the race,
with difficulty getting any ink. And his fate will be largely out
of his control. His success is now very much determined by
variables outside of his control--the early states being split in a
favorable way for him, or a major news event that somehow changes
the nature of the debate in the race.
topics:
Foreign Policy, John McCain, Hillary Clinton, Iran
