I wonder if there might not be a connection between the two
trends noted below: Mike Huckabee's rise and Rudy Giuliani's
stagnation. Pundits, including many on the right, predicted that
social issues would be trumped by other considerations even among a
plurality of religious conservatives. Those pundits appear to be
wrong.
Two candidates entered the race in an attempt to fill the vacuum
to the right of Giuliani: Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. Romney
adopted the issue positions and the rhetoric, but his Massachusetts
record complicated his effectiveness as a social conservative
messenger. Thompson, by contrast, has the record but hasn't been
willing to tailor his issue positions exactly to the specifications
of leading social conservative groups (with the notable exceptions
of the National Right to Life Committee and some state pro-life
groups) and seems uncomfortable with the rhetoric.
Nevertheless, skeptical social conservatives turned first to
Romney, having learned about him from generally favorable treatment
in the conservative press. Then they discovered his past social
liberalism and how recently he changed on abortion and other
issues. The buzz then surrounded Thompson, whose poll numbers rose
in anticipation that he'd get into the race. Yet when he finally
threw his hat into the rang, there were complaints that he didn't
meet expectations and soon his numbers began to decline.
Then attention shifted back to Romney, who devoted considerable
resources to socially conservative Iowa and eventually South
Carolina. Combined with the traditional Massachusetts advantage in
New Hampshire, he once again seemed the practical choice for
Republicans who thought Giuliani was too socially liberal. But
there remained gnawing concerns about his authenticity.
Enter Mike Huckabee. Huckabee speaks the evangelicals' language,
has a consistent record on their issues, and impressed people at
venues like the Ames straw poll and the Values Voter Summit. As
word spread about his underfunded campaign (and, as I suspect we'll
eventually find out, as a network of evangelical pastors and
activists provided a supplement to his campaign in Iowa) and the
media adopted him as a friendly evangelical, he caught on. Watching
the other factions of the party insist on fidelity to their issues,
from taxes to immigration to foreign policy, social conservatives
wanted someone who met their litmus tests.
That's why the conservative campaign against Huckabee, however
justified, might be counterproductive. Few conservative pundits
tried to take down Giuliani. It is usually the mainstream media,
not the conservative press, that has exposed Giuliani scandals.
Elements of the right, meanwhile, have started pulling out all the
stops against Huckabee, including the Club for Growth when the
former Arkansas governor was still an asterik candidate.
I'm not saying conservatives shouldn't air their concerns about
Huckabee, many of which I share. And it could just as easily be
true that Huckabee will prove a flash in the pan in large part
because of his conservative critics. But it could also contribute
to the feeling of many social conservatives that they are being
shortchanged. We'll see.
topics:
Taxes, Foreign Policy, Mainstream Media, Abortion, Immigration
