Right on schedule, the accommodationists have begun to come out
of the woodwork. Vali Nasr and Ray Takeyh -- the always-predictable
CFR's resident Iran hands -- had a piece in yesterday's International Herald
Tribune laying out their ironclad logic for cutting a deal
with Iran's ayatollahs. Here's a sampling: "Iran, as the National
Intelligence Estimate noted, is hardly the radical power determined
to upend the regional order. Iran is an unexceptionally
opportunistic state seeking to assert predominance in its immediate
neighborhood... The task is to conceive a situation in which Iran
would want to be contained - in other words, one in which it would
see benefits in limiting its ambitions and abiding by prevailing
norms."
This argument would actually be quaint if it wasn't being taken
quite so seriously. After all, until very recently, the idea that
Iran's radical regime can be bribed into a cooperative mood had
been the driver of Europe's Iran policy. We all know how that has
turned out.
To my mind, the real question here is whether -- now that regime
change, military action, and comprehensive international sanctions
are all essentially off the table -- there is anything that we can
actually offer the Iranians that is more attractive than their
current circumstance. My personal suspicion is that the regime
there thinks it has things pretty good at the moment, thank you
very much.
topics:
Military, Iran