The fallout from the new Iran NIE continues. In today's Roll Call, Mort
Kondracke touches upon the practical consequences of the
intelligence community's U-turn: "The finding that Iran halted its
nuclear weapons program in 2003 -- reversing a 2005 declaration
that Iran had such a program -- ended any possibility that Bush
could win support for an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. It
also undercut Bush's ability to win support for United Nations
sanctions, though European sanctions still are possible."
Therein lies the rub. Even before the release of the new NIE,
the Bush Administration was having a tough time convincing Russia
and China of the need for more serious measures against Iran. In
its aftermath, that task has become well nigh impossible. After
all, why should Moscow and Beijing get behind the Administration's
assessment of the Iranian threat when its own intelligence
community doesn't? And without any serious sticks that it can use
against Tehran, the White House has less leverage to modify Iranian
behavior than ever before -- something that the Iranian regime
understands all too well. A pretty pickle indeed.
topics:
Iran, Russia, United Nations, Nuclear Weapons
