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That New Hampshire Poll

By Philip Klein on 11.20.07 @ 11:35AM

Yesterday, Jennifer noted this CNN/WMUR poll, which was terrible for Giuliani, absolutely disasterous for Thompson, great for Romney and Paul, and okay for McCain.

In the poll, Romney opened up a 15-point lead over his closest rival, McCain, 33 percent to 18 percent. That wasn't due to any great surge by McCain--he just held steady--but a result of the fact that Giuliani nosedived 8 points to 16 percent. Keep in mind that in the same poll taken in September, Giuliani was within one-point of Romney, but in this one he's 17 points back.

Thompson, meanwhile, has dropped to sixth place in the poll to a paltry 4 percent. Just behind Huckabee, but with only half of the support of Paul, who doubled his showing to 8 percent. Unless Thompson does something to stop the bleeding, he's looking more and more like a regional candidate who will be holding out for South Carolina, where he's also been weakening. Paul's surge is likely a result of his new television ads running in New Hampshire, a state that is likely to be among the most receptive to his libertarian message.

As for Giuliani, the poll is clearly bad news, but it should also be noted that he's just started to run TV ads and spend more time in the state, so polls a few weeks from now may be more telling as far as his showing in the state.

And this remains the biggest caveat of all:

Only 14 percent of those surveyed said they had definitely decided on a candidate, while 29 percent said they were leaning toward one -- and 56 percent were still trying to decide.

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