Hillarycare was probably a major reason the Democrats
experienced historic losses in 1994. The Contract with America was
important, but not necessarily more so than the recoil from an
attempt to socialize 12% of the national economy.
Back in 1992, Americans weren't nearly as antsy about their
health care as they are today. HMO's produced inconveniences but
lowered premiums substantially. People who were covered by their
employer were generally okay with their out of pocket costs and
with what they were getting. Certainly that was the case with white
collar types.
Today, I think the picture is different. Premiums, even HMO
premiums, have gone up considerably. The co-pays are higher, the
base prices are higher, many drugs cost more, etc. Employers are
feeling the squeeze, too. GM's Rick Waggoner has complained that he
often feels he's in the health care business rather than the
automobile business.
What I'm suggesting is that the idea of off-loading health care
costs onto the government is becoming a more attractive idea. I
suspect a company like Ford or GM would almost certainly benefit
from a government takeover of health care. At the same time, health
care plans have become expensive enough for people covered by their
employers to make them more willing to listen to talk of government
sponsored care for all.
Private health insurance was once an attractive way for
employers to compensate employees without exposing them to more tax
liability. That win-win, for reasons of medical liability and other
factors that increase cost, has become a source of growing alarm
for both employers and employees. The interests of corporate
welfare and individual welfare are coming together in a perfect
storm. Democrats, generally interested in extending the New Deal
and the Great Society, are eager to oblige.
The standard case against government health care has been that
it will result in much higher taxes, that health care delivery will
become less customer friendly, that services will become more
scarce, and that the pace of innovation will drop off sharply. That
case is still a strong one, but I'm not certain at all Americans
and, perhaps more important, American corporations are nearly as
resistant as they once were. I suspect that if a Democrat is
elected, national health care will be in the bag.
topics:
Taxes, Health Care, Business, Oil
